STOCK/MARKET Alert 3.24.2025 ….Trump Tariff Relief Rally

My Stock/Market Alert is an event driven brief about a stock OR the market when noteworthy action occurs. Today’s alert is about the market rally on new Trump tariff talks.

Expect the frequency of my Stock/Market Alert notes to be consistent with meaningful moves in a specific stock held by BAM Portfolios or the stock market in general.

Friday Trump told reporters that there could potentially be “flexibility” for his reciprocal tariff plan, which had helped push major averages into the green for the session and resulted in the S&P 500 avoiding a fifth straight losing week. A myopic look at the market (a 5 minute chart) showed an explosive move up in the broad index (SP 500). That could have given the bulls comfort and expectant of a follow-through rally Monday. But it was Friday, and with peak uncertainty and near extreme, headline driven volatility, there had to caution ahead of the weekend. There was more weekend news, again from Trump and tariffs and again welcomed by the stock market. Yesterday, Sunday, news reports citing “officials close to the matter” reported that President Trump will announce widespread reciprocal tariffs on nations or blocs but is set to exclude some, and the administration is not planning separate, sectoral-specific tariffs to be unveiled at the same event. A shift in tariff emphasis from a country-by-country basis to an industry-by-industry (with specific emphasis on cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals). The details are likely to be complex, with the potential for individual tariff rates on up to 17,000 different product categories across 193 different countries. Okay, that’s complex, but the market opened today with the bullish mood it closed with Friday and the SP 500 scored it’s best day of the year.

Here’s today’s U.S. major market scorecard:

Now global investment markets are focused on the April 2 “Liberation Day” as it may one of the most important day of the year for investors. Part of Trump’s new notion of being “flexible”, countries may be able to negotiate lower rates on targeted industries by aiding U.S. objectives.

While today’s relief rally was bullish, uncertainty is still high. The best indicator of the future direction of the stock market is the market itself. So, I will stay pragmatically focused on the near term market’s price and volume action and watch for a confirmation of a new market rally before increasing exposure.

As noted often during the “Covid Crash”, the stock market’s biggest single up-days occur during corrections and bear markets. So, today’s rally should not be a surprise. Also, expect more market volatility as we head into the close of Q1. Historically, Q1 weakness has occurred regardless of how strong or weak the month of March has been.