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Global Economic Indicators & Analysis:
POSITIVE INDICATORS
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Initial Jobless Claims Down: The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, but the drop was likely due to ongoing challenges adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations around this time of the year. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 198,000 for the week ended January 10, the Labor Department said on today. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week.
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Retail Sales Up: A long-delayed report on sales at U.S. retailers in November signaled that the holiday shopping season got off to a good start and suggested the U.S. economy was still growing at a healthy clip. Retail sales rose a stronger-than-expected 0.6% in November, the government said yesterday in a report that was originally set to be published a month ago but was delayed by the recent government shutdown. The increase in sales was the biggest in four months and offset a small decline in October. Sales rose at most retail stores in November. The biggest increases were at car dealers, home centers, gas stations and clothing stores. Perhaps the most critical category in the retail report, restaurant sales, advanced 0.6% in November. The U.S. economy has kept growing at a surprisingly strong pace despite high tariffs, lingering inflation and a big slowdown in hiring. Steady consumer spending, especially among wealthier households, has been a big reason for that.
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CPI Cooling: Core U.S. consumer prices rose less than predicted in December, reinforcing hopes that inflation is tempering as the Federal Reserve contemplates its next move on interest rates. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the consumer price index showed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% gain on a monthly basis and 2.6% annually, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Both were 0.1 percentage point below expectations. Though they look at both measures, Fed officials consider core inflation a better long-run gauge of where inflation is heading. On a headline basis, the CPI posted an increase of 0.3% for the month, putting the all-items annual rate at 2.7%. Both were exactly in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate.
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NFIB Small Business Optimism Up: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points in December to 99.5 and remained above its 52-year average of 98. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, two increased, three decreased, and five were unchanged. An increase in those expecting better business conditions primarily drove the rise in the Optimism Index. The Uncertainty Index fell 7 points from November to 84, the lowest reading since June 2024.
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ADP Employment Numbers Report Up: ADP said businesses created 41,000 jobs in December, suggesting a weak U.S. labor market showed mild improvement heading into the new year. Wall Street forecasters had predicted a 48,000 increase in private-sector jobs. The health of the jobs market is the biggest worry of the Federal Reserve as it weighs whether to cut interest rates again in 2026. Hiring has slowed rapidly since the spring, and employment even fell for the first time since the pandemic. The latest ADP report suggested the deterioration in the labor market may have eased. Employment rose in two of the last three months.
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Jobs Market Showing Some Strength: The economy created a modest 50,000 jobs in December — the second increase in a row — in a sign a weak U.S. labor market might be stabilizing after a steep slowdown in hiring last year. The unemployment rate also fell from a four-year high. The increase in hiring was padded by higher government employment. The private sector only added 37,000 new jobs last month. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.4% from a revised 4.5% in November. The lukewarm December employment report, at least on the face of it, could ease worries at the Federal Reserve about a crumbling jobs market. Fed officials are weighing a fourth straight interest-rate cut in January, but the December jobs report is unlikely to give them a clear sign on what to do.
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PMI Up: The Institute for Supply Management said yesterday that its services-sector PMI rose to 54.4% in December from 52.6% in the prior month. That’s the highest level since October 2024 and the third straight month of expansion. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected the index to drop to 52.2%. The employment index expanded for the first time in seven months. The new-orders index jumped 5 percentage points to 57.9 in the month. The prices index fell 1.1 percentage points to 64.3 in December. That was the lowest reading since March and perhaps a sign that tariff-related price pressures were abating.
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US Productivity Up: One of the biggest drivers of a strong U.S. economy — worker productivity, — surged over the summer and in early fall, raising hopes that investment in artificial intelligence is beginning to pay off. U.S. productivity accelerated to a 4.9% annual clip in the third quarter, the government said last Thursday. That’s the fastest pace in two years. The gain was in line with forecasts of economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal. Productivity has been steadily improving, and some economists expect the trend to continue. Unit labor costs fell 1.9% in the third quarter, a sign that labor costs are not driving inflationary pressures.
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US Trade Deficit Down: The U.S. trade deficit plummeted 39% in October to reach the lowest level in 16 years, but the steep drop stemmed from an ongoing gold rush of sorts as well as efforts by businesses to work around high tariffs. The trade gap shrank to $29.4 billion in October from $48.1 billion in September, the government said last Thursday. The October report was delayed by the federal shutdown. A combination of surging U.S. exports and dwindling imports explained the big drop in the deficit. The last time the trade gap was so low was in 2009. Exports rose 2.6% in October. Imports fell by 3.2% in October to the lowest level in nearly two years. Still, big monthly increases and decreases in the trade deficit in 2025 have done nothing to reverse a long-term of high and rising U.S. trade deficits. In the first 10 months of 2025, the trade deficit totaled $782.8 billion, up 8% from $726.8 billion in the first 10 months of 2024.
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